Health Officials Concerned About Increase in COVID-19 Transmission Rate


While expressing continued optimism about local efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19, Los Angeles County health officials on Wednesday noted again recent upticks in case numbers that could reflect a post- Labor Day spike in infections and will likely delay more expansive business reopenings.

County public health director Barbara Ferrer also issued another warning to people who persist in thinking the coronavirus does not pose a serious threat, saying the county has seen an 18% rise in overall deaths this year when compared to this stage of the past three years.

“In other words, when we compare the first seven months of 2020 to the first seven months of the past three years, we’ve observed on average 18% more deaths than we expected, based on past trends,” Ferrer said. “And we know that the excess deaths are not fully attributable to just people who died of COVID-19. But I do want to emphasize — especially for those who continue to believe that COVID-19 is no worse than a bad case of influenza — that this chart shows that, in fact, it’s much worse.

“We’ve probably had 20 to 30% more deaths in May, June and July of 2020 than we saw in the prior three years for the same months,” she said. “… If you look at the entire L.A. County population, this has translated into thousands of deaths that would otherwise not have occurred.”

Ferrer continued to paint a picture of L.A. County generally winning the fight to slow the spread of the virus, although she again said this is a “critical week” in determining if the county is experiencing a post-Labor Day surge in cases. Daily new case numbers in the county have been on a steady decline for at least six weeks, but at the end of last week — roughly two weeks after the Labor Day holiday — the county saw a series of increases, with new cases topping 1,000 on four consecutive days.

On Wednesday, Ferrer announced 1,265 new cases — although some of those positive tests could potentially have occurred over the past few days, when test results tend to lag from the weekend.


The county, however, also reported a disturbing increase in the local virus transmission rate — the average number of people a coronavirus patient infects with the illness. That number had been steadily declining, dropping below the critical threshold of 1.0, but on Wednesday, it rose to 1.02.

Health officials have said that keeping the transmission rate below 1 is critical to slowing the spread of the virus, so the county will be keeping a close watch on that number in the coming days to see if it continues inching upward.

Concerns about post-Labor Day case numbers also have the county reticent to move ahead with any new business re-openings — most notably for nail salons, which were cleared by the state Tuesday to resume indoor operations. The county, however, is yet to authorize them to reopen locally, and county Supervisor Hilda Solis expressed hesitance to do so until more data are collected this week to determine case trends.

“We regularly speak with our public health director, whether its via email or phone conversations,” she said. “We will be having our meeting this coming Tuesday and we’ll be able to discuss some of these items, and they’re very, very — what could I say — concerning, because we know that we’re waiting to see data coming back after the Labor Day weekend, so I am very, very cautious of that.”

Ferrer confirmed Wednesday that the county currently meets the criteria to move up a tier in the state’s four-tier roadmap for business re-openings, thanks to a current average testing-positivity rate of just 2.8% and a new daily case rate of seven per 100,000 residents.

But those statistics, which are used by the state to classify counties in the appropriate tier, are based on data collected the week of Sept. 6-12 — before the county saw the four-day spike in daily case numbers last week.

“So we’re not sure that we’ll have another week where our adjusted daily case rate is at or below seven new cases per 100,000 residents,” she said. “But we are heartened that L.A. County has met the thresholds that allow us to see our progress and in the future move to tier two.”

The county is in the most restrictive “purple” tier of the state’s matrix. Moving up to tier two, or the “red” tier, would allow more businesses to reopen, including movie theaters, with capacity limits and other restrictions.

The 1,265 new cases announced Wednesday lifted the countywide cumulative total since the start of the pandemic to 263,333.

Ferrer also announced 31 more coronavirus-related deaths, lifting the total to 6,423.

A total of 779 people were hospitalized due to the virus as of Wednesday — down sharply from the average of 2,200 patients that were reported back in July following the Fourth of July holiday.

As of today, the number of confirmed infections in West Hollywood has increased by four to a total of 556. The number of people in West Hollywood who have died of COVID-19 related illnesses as of today is five.

In Beverly Hills, the number of confirmed infections has increased by six to 673. The number of COVID-19 related deaths in Beverly Hills as of today was 12. The number of COVID-19 infection confirmed among Culver City residents has increased by one to  384. The number of deaths as of today remains at 29. The Health Department reports eight newly confirmed infections in Hollywood, bringing its total to 1,181.  The number of deaths remains at14. The Melrose neighborhoods latest count is up by ten to 1,884.  The number of COVID-19 related deaths remains at 70.

Public Health has a dedicated call line for confirmed cases of COVID-19. If you are positive for COVID-19 and have not yet connected with a public health specialist or need more information on services, call toll-free at 1 (833) 540-0473. Residents who do not have COVID-19 can continue to call 211 for resources or more information.

One way the virus can be transmitted is through a cough, a sneeze or even through air that comes from the mouth when someone talks. For that reason, residents must wear face coverings when out in public and can be cited for not doing so. The citations come with a $250 fine and a $50 administrative fee.

West Hollywood residents with questions about the COVID-19 pandemic or who are looking for resources to deal with it can find answers on the City of West Hollywood’s website. Here is a list of links to sections about particular subjects and issues:

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3 years ago

Common sense should tell everyone that the sooner one deals with a problem or an emergency….the better. To all those who took this pandemic casually, whether or not there were official mandates, we now have a prolonged moving disaster with a possible serious second phase.
Negligence is negligence and we will not be safe until all are safe.

3 years ago

I will observe.

Strap yourselves in: it will continue to be a long, long ride.

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