Study: Opposition to Prop 32 is growing

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Support for Proposition 32, which seeks to raise California’s minimum wage to $18 per hour starting in 2025, has seen a significant drop, decreasing by 6% between early August and late September, according to a new poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies. Once enjoying strong backing, the measure is now facing the possibility of defeat come Election Day.

Since 2016, California’s minimum wage has been gradually increasing. That year, then-Governor Jerry Brown signed SB 3 into law, which set a schedule for incremental wage hikes. For larger businesses, wages rose from $10.50 per hour in 2016 to $15 by 2022. Since then, adjustments tied to the consumer price index have pushed the wage to $15.50 an hour in 2023 and $16 at the start of 2024.

However, some cities and sectors in California have minimum wages above the state level. West Hollywood’s rate sits at $19.65. Fast food workers across the state have seen a wage increase to $20 per hour since April, a move that has resulted in over 5,400 jobs being lost thus far.

In response to inflation and rising living expenses, Proposition 32 was introduced to accelerate wage increases further. The measure outlines a path to a minimum wage of $18 per hour, with larger employers reaching this level by January 1, 2025, and smaller employers by January 1, 2026. The proposition also follows the same structure as SB 3, where future wage increases will be tied to inflation.

Should the measure pass, the state minimum wage would temporarily rise to $17 an hour from November through December, before increasing to $18 in January.

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In the early stages, Proposition 32 had widespread support, largely due to concerns over inflation and the high cost of living in California. A January poll conducted by USC/CSU Long Beach showed 59% of voters in favor of the measure, with 34% opposed. By August, approval had slipped slightly to 52%, but the proposition still appeared poised to pass. However, growing concerns over job losses linked to the recent fast food wage hike began to dampen enthusiasm.

By September, a Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll indicated that support had dwindled to a near tie, with 50% of voters supporting the proposition and 49% opposed. The most recent poll from UC Berkeley shows even greater erosion, with only 46% of voters now in favor, while 36% oppose the measure, and 18% remain undecided.

The drop in support has been widespread. In August, seven of California’s eight regions reported at least 49% approval for the measure. The most recent poll shows only the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles County, and the North Coast still hold majority support. Voters who identify as moderates saw a steep decline in approval, dropping from 49% to 40%, while support among no-party-preference voters has fallen from 51% to 39%.

Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, said that voters’ support for Proposition 32 has fallen below the 50% threshold required for it to pass. According to him, only 46% of voters now intend to vote “Yes,” reflecting a six-point decrease since August.

Some analysts predict that support for the proposition may continue to slip as Election Day approaches. Bernard Warren, who monitors wage increases, told the Globe that California voters are showing hesitation as they witness the negative fallout from the fast food wage increase. According to Warren, the job losses seen in that sector have made people pause and reconsider the broader consequences of another wage hike, particularly among voters making less than $40,000 annually. In that group, support for the measure has dropped by 10%, signaling a shift in sentiment.

Warren added that if the trend continues, support could drop into the low 40s by the end of the month, with fewer undecided voters remaining. 

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Ida Lupino
Ida Lupino
29 days ago

NO 32!

Jonathan
Jonathan
1 month ago

This is more about revenue for the state then money in employees pockets. I used to have 60 full time employees , at times I needed them to work Saturdays, when they did almost the whole saturday went towards their increase in TAX level. Result None wanted to work Saturdays.. Why not offer employee incentives that are not taxed like food cards, gas cards, schooling monies, ect. …….Why do so few not ask about the increase to workers comp expenses to employers ? Or the increase in their Liability expense as a result of higher wages …Once I tried very… Read more »

Morty
Morty
1 month ago

Isn’t there a candidate running for city council who said the minimum wages need to be at $45 hour to make it a living wage?

JF1
JF1
28 days ago
Reply to  Morty

Yep, I think that was Hang. If he manages to pull that extreme idea off, he’ll be on the bread line with everybody else because everything will be so expensive. He won’t even be able to afford anything.

JF1
JF1
1 month ago

Lost jobs and higher prices for everyone. No good. The way out of a low wage paying jobs for low skill workers is education.

JF1
JF1
1 month ago
Reply to  JF1

And I’ve said this before… Giving low skill workers a raise in minimum wage causes the price of everything to go up so they really don’t come out ahead because now they have to pay more for everything as does the middle class who didn’t get any raise at all so they’re worse off

C.R.
C.R.
1 month ago
Reply to  JF1

All you have to do is tell me where all the low wage earners are supposed to live affordably in 2024 while they’re working those jobs. You people always just leave this part out, yet it’s pretty important.

JF1
JF1
28 days ago
Reply to  C.R.

There are plenty of neighborhoods where the rents are not ridiculously high as they are in West Hollywood. It just means that people have to travel to work as my parents did and my grandfather who worked three jobs because he didn’t have an education. Building affordable housing in West Hollywood is kind of ridiculous because while they might be able to live in an affordable unit everything that surrounds them is super expensive probably the highest prices in LA County. And you still haven’t argued counterpoint when they raise the minimum wage and businesses raise the prices of everything… Read more »

Last edited 28 days ago by JF1
Gimmeabreak
Gimmeabreak
1 month ago

A wage should be no more than what the job is worth to the employer. His competition with other businesses owners to keep good employees factors in. The market disciplines itself, but when government regulators intrude the market is no longer free and determining what causes success and failure is distorted. The government is a really bad business partner.

JF1
JF1
1 month ago
Reply to  Gimmeabreak

100%

Last edited 1 month ago by JF1
Pedro B
Pedro B
1 month ago

What the so called inteligencia like Comrade Byers don’t understand is the shear scale of unemployment and business failures caused by ever increasing and unrealistic payrolls. However, a faster adaptation to automation will continue to clip the wings of her banker Unite Here.

JF1
JF1
1 month ago
Reply to  Kevin

Tell that to the McDonald’s worker whose job was lost due to touchscreen ordering instead of ordering with a human. Tell it to the parking attendant who no longer stands to collect your parking ticket since people now pay via kiosk. As the minimum wage increases, businesses will find a way using technology to replace these workers, no doubt about it.

Pedro B
Pedro B
1 month ago
Reply to  JF1

Correct. The longshoremen just negotiated a 62% increase. Do you think the port owners care? No because we’re the only country in the world not to be almost fully automated in unloading and loading containers. Give it 10 years and there will be no longshoremen so a 62% victory is meaningless.

C.R.
C.R.
1 month ago
Reply to  JF1

That actually can’t happen soon enough, because this will usher in Universal Basic Income as those jobs cease to be jobs, regardless of the wage.

08mellie
08mellie
1 month ago
Reply to  Kevin

LA Times? Such an unbiased source.

mike
mike
1 month ago
Reply to  08mellie

La Times one of biggest propaganda rags today! Decades ago they use to be somewhat of a legit newspaper.

Davefi
Davefi
30 days ago
Reply to  mike

That newspaper is nothing but a rag. just look at who they endorsed for DA. That’s all you need to know about the LA times.