COVID Update: Saturday, June 12

Former Councilmember John Duran has been doing daily COVID updates on his Facebook page since March 2020. Many members of the community have found them helpful. They are republished here with his permission.

Daily Update for Saturday, June 12, 2021

LA County Cases 1,245,949 (up from 1,245,771)

LA County Deaths 24,416 (up from 24,414)

LA Positivity Rate unchanged .4% (.004)

LA Hospitalizations 240 (down from 244)

198 new COVID cases announced in LA county yesterday along with 5 additional deaths.   Positivity rate still low at less than half of one percent.  Hospitalizations still stable and low at 240. 

FEAR FOR THE UNVACCINATED

There is a great opinion piece on the front page of the CA section of the LA TImes written by Nita Lelyveld.   I whole heartedly agree with what she wrote.  The title of the piece is “Masks May Be Coming Off, but Worry Lingers.   As California nears reopening, I fear for the unvaccinated”.

For fifteen months now, I have been writing these daily updates.  Sometimes I complain.  Sometimes I extend praise.  Sometimes I question.  Sometimes I muse.  Sometimes I wander.  Sometimes I scream.   Each daily update is not pre planned.  I just start typing based upon what I read in my morning papers the LA Times, The New York Times and the Washington Post.

Each day, we have watched the numbers go up.   The daily caseloads and deaths.  The positivity rate and hospitalizations which fluctuate but now remain low.    But June 15th is now three days away.   In three days – we are going to swing the doors wide open and begin a new chapter of what we hope to be “post COVID” life.   

But here is the reality.  The number of cases and deaths are not going to magically disappear on Tuesday.   Granted – the numbers have winnowed back and now seem like a trickle compared to where we were over winter.    Only 198 cases yesterday.  Only 5 deaths.   Great!   But not if you are one of the 198 or a surviving family member for the 5 dead.

The masks are coming off on Tuesday.  The social distancing is evaporating Tuesday.  The limited capacities disappear on Tuesday.   All the bars and restaurants are re opening at 100%.   The gyms, the yoga studios, the schools, the 12 step meetings – are all returning to “normal” on Tuesday.   And these conditions will exist for both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated.   Those who did not get a dose are NOT going to continue to mask while their friends who are vaccinated take the masks off.  

I got a really bad feeling about this.  

Here is the reality check – if you are vaccinated – there is a 99% chance that you will NOT get seriously sick or die from COVID.  If you do not get vaccinated, then you run on the odds that the other infected millions ran on.   Likely to get ill – but not likely to be put in the hospital or die.   Good odds right?  Unless you are one of the 600,000 dead.

But the deaths that will occur from this day forward – the overwhelming and super majority will come from the unvaccinated and there will be an occasional exception to prove the rule of statistics that 1% of the vaccinated will get sick and die.  

THE RED AND BLUE “THING”

It looks like the USA is going to just fall short of our national goal to hit 70% vaccinated by the 4th of July.  At the current pace, we are going to hit about 67% – according a story posted by CNN Today.  

But thanks to politics – and not science – the BLUE states that Joe Biden won (including California) are CURRENTLY at 69.9% of adults receiving at least one dose.  And with 3 weeks to go.  But the RED states that Trump won – the average is 54.9% of adults receiving at least one dose.  

When you break it down by individual states, 13 of the 25 states Biden took last fall have hit the 70% mark.  An additional 7 states have at least 67% of adults with one dose – so they’ll hit the 70% mark by the 4th of July.  

There are zero states that Trump took last fall that have at least 67% of adults with at least one vaccine dose.  The closest one is Nebraska at 62.8% (which is higher than the four BLUE states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada).  

The only BLUE states that are likely to miss the 70% mark by the 4th of July are Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Michigan.  

I take no pleasure in bringing up these stats.  I wish no harm on Red States or Trumpers.   But I absolutely despise Donald Trump for calling COVID and vaccines into question – but then quietly slipped in and got a vaccine because he wants to survive.    To hell with his supporters.  Let them take their chances with the virus.   This is such horrible malfeasance on his part that he deserves to go into the dustbin of history having caused more American deaths than any other person in our history.   It is a disgrace.  

It’s going to be 86 degrees and sunny in LA Today.  If you are vaccinated – go out and breathe deeply.  If you are not vaccinated, go to CVS today and do it.  Just get it done.   Quietly or post it on social media.    Do it not because you are red or blue.  But because you believe in science and data.